(MADISON, Wis.) As the next presidential administration begins this week, a new University of Wisconsin-Madison survey report on American voters found surprising insights on what drove votes in the closest national vote for president since 2000.
The survey found big gaps in partisan attitudes toward equity and prejudice in American society, consistent with past research by the research team and other scholars.
On racial attitudes, Democrats were much likelier to acknowledge systemic racism as a factor limiting opportunities and outcomes for Black Americans. 64% of Democrats agreed or strongly agreed that “Generations of slavery and discrimination make it difficult for African Americans to advance,” compared with just 14% of Republicans. Independents split the difference at 38%.
On attitudes toward women, the survey assessed views related to what is called hostile sexism – whether they strongly agreed, strongly disagreed, or something in between, that “most women fail to appreciate all that men do for them,” and that “most women interpret innocent remarks or acts as being sexist.”
Democratic women scored an average of 35 out of 100 on the scale, while Democratic men had an average score of 46. Republican women averaged 49 out of 100, while Republican men had an average score of 63. In other words, partisanship distinguished views on women much more than sex.
The study also probed antisemitic attitudes and condemnations of Israel’s human rights record, aiming to measure distinctions between two major antisemitism definitions – one which defines condemnations of Israel as inherently antisemitic (International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance) while the other does not (Jerusalem Declaration).
Here, non-Jewish Democrats and Republicans were indistinguishable in their endorsement of classic antisemitic tropes, on average – false beliefs that Jewish people controlling media, and false beliefs that the Holocaust death toll is exaggerated.
But partisans were sharply divided over condemnations of Israel, with a 19-point gap, on average, in views about whether Israel’s establishment in Palestine was racist against Palestinians, and whether it’s acceptable to compare Israel’s conduct to Nazis.
The study also assessed individual financial hardships and job worries. People in both parties were similarly worried about losing their job – 29% each – but Democrats were more worried about finding a job than Republicans (61% and 52%, respectively). However, Republicans were more likely to say they would not be able to pay an unexpected bill of $2000 by 13 points, though people in both parties said they’d struggle to pay a $4000 bill at similar rates.
The report concludes it is true that substantial numbers of Trump voters are financially insecure. However, similar portions of Harris voters are economically vulnerable too. Both candidates drew support from voters in economic precarity, based on differing visions and promises related to the economy and beyond. But that means economic precarity wasn’t a distinctive motivator for partisan vote choice.
The 2024 Wisconsin Communication & Elections Study interviewed a demographically weighted representative opt-in sample of 2,000 voting eligible American adults, fielded online by YouGov from October 17 to November 4, 2024. A team of UW-Madison faculty, grad students, and staff affiliated with the Center for Communication and Civic Renewal (CCCR) developed dozens of questions, led by CCCR’s Faculty Director Dr. Michael Wagner.
Dr. Michael Wagner, who is also the Evjue Distinguished Chair for the Wisconsin Idea in the UW-Madison School of Journalism and Mass Communication, characterized the importance of these findings for understanding the factors that shaped the critical 2024 election.
“Our national survey bursts so many bubbles of conventional wisdom about today’s politics. At the same time, the survey provides evidence supporting claims about how perceptions of the economy and attitudes about Gaza affected the 2024 presidential election results,” he said.
“Our 2024 pre-election survey of Americans paints a complex picture of partisan divisions and similarities and suggests a deeply divided electorate who view shared experiences through very different lenses,” said Dr. Dhavan Shah, McLeod Professor of Communication Research and Research Director for the Center for Communication and Civic Renewal at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The survey also provided insights on national news diets and partisan news bubbles, along with foreign policy attitudes. Republicans are far more likely to opt into partisan media news bubbles than Democrats – 21% vs. 3% who only consumed political media from their side.
And, on foreign policy, Democrats expressed much more favorable attitudes toward aiding Ukraine and Palestine than Republicans, and much less support for providing military aid to Israel than Republicans – roughly 30 point gaps for all questions.
Although non-probability samples do not have traditional margins of error, percentages from the full sample have a virtual margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points for estimates near 50%, with smaller margins for estimates as they move toward 0% or 100%. Estimates for Democrats in the two states have margins of error of +/- 3 percentage points, and estimates for Republicans are +/- 3 percentage points.
The research team also fielded a Midwest-focused survey with many of the same questions, and they are fielding post-election surveys for additional insights, all for later reports and scholarly work.
The survey was supported by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, which advances research on the intersections of media and democracy.
About the Center for Communication & Civic Renewal
The Center for Communication & Civic Renewal (CCCR) is an interdisciplinary research team housed in the School of Journalism & Mass Communication at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. CCCR’s research aims to understand Wisconsin public opinion and the state’s broad political communication ecology, drawing upon frameworks and methods foundations in communication, political science, sociology, psychology, and computer science. Dr. Michael Wagner leads the Center as Faculty Director, Dr. Dhavan Shah is the Center’s Research Director, and Dr. Nathan Kalmoe serves as Executive Administrative Director for the Center.
The Center’s public opinion polling is one of three analytical components in its broader efforts studying political communication in Wisconsin, the Midwest, and beyond. Over the years, we have also conducted in-depth interviews with hundreds of citizens throughout the state to understand how they’re talking and thinking about politics. And we have conducted large-scale computational analyses of social media and news media content throughout the Wisconsin, the United Stares, and the world.
CCCR’s past research is synthesized in the book, Battleground: Asymmetric Communication Ecologies and the Erosion of Civil Society in Wisconsin, published by Cambridge University Press in 2022, along with several peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals, and public-facing essays published in national news outlets including the Washington Post, Vox, and TechStream as well as local outlets like the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Capital Times, and the Wisconsin State Journal
The Center’s December 2024 report, “Understanding 2024 Voters in Midwest Battleground States,” assessed Midwestern voting patterns, group and policy divides, and the nature of political conversations and news consumption. The study found lower anticipated voting levels among Democrats, low-income people, and people of color; large party divides in views of marginalized groups; some surprising levels of party agreement on many policy views, and substantial echo chambers for political talk and news.